Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen
11 min
Whether you were naughty or nice, the weekend preview is back all the same. Boxing Day is, after all, a festival of football and we have our usual spread: A boosted treble, and three selected singles. Here is this weekend’s boosted treble and three single bets
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted Treble of the week
Bournemouth – Crystal Palace
First up we are heading to the South Coast, where Bournemouth are taking on Crystal Palace. The two clubs had very different experiences in their last game before Christmas, with Bournemouth beating Manchester United 3-0 away from home and Crystal Palace losing 5-1 at home to Arsenal. I would argue that Bournemouth were a little bit fortunate at Old Trafford, with United missing some sizable chances in the first half and Bournemouth getting their two first goals from first a corner and then a penalty foolishly conceded by United. But still, a 3-0 win at Old Trafford is entirely in keeping with the kind of form Bournemouth have been showing recently. They have won four out of their last five games in the PL, and have the third best xG difference in the league. It is absolutely no fluke that they are as high as fifth in the table.
Palace on the other hand have had a bit of a rough season so far, winning just three of their first seven games in the league.
This is something of a surprise given their impressive performances towards the end of last season, and the fact that they were able to hang on to key players like Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze in the transfer window. Still things have picked up a little bit in recent weeks: Before the defeat to Arsenal, Palace had lost just once in their last five league games. This would suggest that manager Oliver Glasner was starting to turn things around. The heavy defeat at home to Arsenal was something of a setback in that regard, but the team was missing the aforementioned Eze as well as important right wingback Daniel Munoz. The latter will be back here, and Eze could also be back to full fitness. Scoring goals has been a real issue for Palace this season, with just Ipswich, Everton and Southampton scoring fewer in the league so far.
You would expect Crystal Palace to give a better account of themselves here, but the fact is that they are up against a very strong Bournemouth team. We’re going by the xG difference so far this season – and after 17 games I think that is a pretty reliable measure of how well teams have been performing – this is a game between the third best team in the league so far and the 13th. Even accounting for the fact that some of Palace’s worst performances came early on in the season and that they have been improving, I think it’s going to be very difficult for them to go to the Vitality Stadium and get a result.
Bournemouth have been one of the surprises of the season, and the underlying numbers suggest there is nothing flukey about their results. I think they can take care of an underwhelming Palace team at home. We’re picking a Bournemouth win to kick off our weekly boosted treble.
Wolves – Manchester United
Next up we head to the Black Country and Wolverhampton, and again we have a game between two teams that had very different experiences at the weekend. Wolves’ new boss Vitor Pereira made a winning start to his tenure with a huge 3-0 win away to Leicester City, whereas Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth. United have suffered a fair few humiliations in recent years, and it’s tempting to label the Bournemouth defeat as yet another example of a clever, well-drilled club with a plan showing up United’s gaggle of overpriced underperformers. Tempting, but in my view not entirely accurate. United looked the better team in the first half, but were let down by poor finishing and then conceded from a set piece. In the second half United were still playing reasonably well, but then conceded a second goal by giving a foolish penalty. This hasn’t often been the case with United in recent years, but I honestly thought there were a fair few positives in their performance and that 3-0 was a harsh final scoreline. That being said, manager Ruben Amorim has a job on his hands when it comes to weeding out defensive errors.
Wolves continue to be the goal kings for the league, with their games so far averaging a whopping 3.94 goals. Their attack, led by the irrepressible Matheus Cunha, is not actually terrible – with the team scoring 27 goals in their first 17 league games this season. For context, that’s the same number of goals as Brighton, Newcastle and Bournemouth have scored so far. Wolves’ problem, of course, have been down the other end. They’ve conceded a wholly unsustainable 40 goals so far, and fixing the defence will no doubt be the new boss Pereira’s first priority. A more defensive approach could lead to this becoming a less eventful game than we’ve been used to seeing from Wolves, but then again, I’m not convinced Pereira can change this overnight.
Even though they somehow drew a blank against Bournemouth, Manchester United have been reasonably productive going forward after Ruben Amorim took over. They went into the Bournemouth game having scored two or more goals in six out of their seven previous games. I would expect them to score at some point against a spectacularly leaky Wolves defence. And as for Wolves, for all of their troubles they have been pretty reliable goalscorers this season. They’ve found the net in 17 out of 19 games in all competitions, and I certainly don’t trust United’s gaffe-prone defence to keep them out here. I think “both teams to score” here is a solid pick for our weekly boosted treble.
Nottingham Forest – Tottenham
Lastly on our weekly boosted treble I cannot resist a trip to Nottingham – which I have to say is not something I’ve ever said or thought before. But from a betting perspective I want to get involved with Ange Postecoglou’s chaos machine, which should provide us with another afternoon of entertainment. If we learned nothing else from Tottenham’s unhinged 6-3 defeat to Liverpool this weekend, it’s that their Australian manager is dogmatic to the point where he prefers certain defeat to the prospect of making tactical adjustments. And this leads me to think that we will see goals again here.
Typically, Nottingham Forest are not a team you would look to for goals. At 2.47 goals per game, only Everton-games have been less goal-tastic than the ones involving Nottingham Forest. But Nottingham Forest have scored in seven out of eight games at home this season, and tactically I think they’re an awkward match-up for Tottenham. As we’ve seen, Spurs are fully committed to playing with a very high line, even if their injury-hit squad is looking increasingly tired and unable to press the opponent well enough to avoid that high line being exploited. Forest are one of the teams in the league who look the most comfortable sitting back in a low block, soaking up pressure, and then springing dangerous attacks on the counter. It feels like a recipe for trouble for Spurs and Ange Postecoglou. Defeat would be particularly awkward for Spurs since the now rather successful Nottingham Forest boss Nuno Espirito Santo was so unceremoniously sacked after just 17 games when in charge at Tottenham.
But the good thing about Postecoglou’s Spurs is that you can pretty much always rely on them to score goals, and it’s telling that when they made it 5-3 with less than ten minutes less to go against Liverpool it did seem entirely possible that they might get two more and make it 5-5. Of course, they instead conceded yet another goal to make it 6-3. Still, Tottenham are the highest scorers in the PL so far this season – and even against a rugged Nottingham Forest defence you would expect them to get on the scoresheet at some point. So far this season, games involving Tottenham in the league have averaged 3.76 goals.
All of which leads me to think we should see goals here. I don’t think Tottenham’s makeshift defence will be able to keep Nottingham Forest out, but to be fair to Tottenham they really are quite formidable in attack themselves. I think we’ll see over 2.5 goals in this game, and I’m happy to make that the third and final pick on this weekend’s boosted treble.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 4.67, but Betsson have increased the odds to 5.50!
Selected singles
Bournemouth – Crystal Palace
We’re going to do something unusual for Boxing Day, which is taking a risky single selection in all three of the games from the boosted treble. If our picks for the treble represents the sensible picks, for our selected singles we will up the juice considerably. And first off is Bournemouth, who I want to back with a -1 handicap. Bournemouth have been consistently impressive this season, and at home against a rather uninspiring Palace side I think the Cherries could be one for a Christmas feast. Bournemouth with a -1 handicap is priced at 3.36, which I think is worth a punt this Boxing Day.
Nottingham Forest – Tottenham
Next up, we are going to take a bit of a swing at Nottingham Forest – Tottenham. I think Tottenham are in a bit of trouble. The defensive absentees are a huge problem for them, and even though Destiny Udogie could be back at left back here that still leaves them with the error-prone Radu Dragusin in the middle next to 18-year-old Archie Gray. A midfielder by trade, Gray has gradually been converted to play at right fullback – but it’s a big ask to play him in central defence in the PL. Reserve goalkeeper Fraser Forster has shown that he is still a capable shot-stopper, but he is less adept with his feet and his presence has clearly caused uncertainty in Tottenham’s build-up game. Between the wily Chris Wood and the energetic runs of Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elang and Morgan Gibbs-White, Forest have the tools to greatly unsettled what is a highly improvised defensive unit. The rest of the Spurs team looks strong on paper, but injuries across the board means Postecoglou has been unable to rotate as he otherwise would, leaving several of these other players looking really rather tired. With the Australian still insisting they play a hugely energy-sapping style of play, Spurs are there for the taking right now. Defeat to Forest would be an embarrassment for the club, especially given how things went for Forest-boss Nuno Espirito Santo at Spurs, but I think there is a real possibility of this outcome. You obviously won’t expect Spurs to be swept aside like they were against Liverpool, but I think there is a significant chance of another embarrassing defeat here. Betsson are offering a price of 3.65 on Nottingham Forest to win and both teams to score, and while that is a bit of a long shot I do think it is a long shot worth taking.
Wolves – Manchester United
Next up we are going to take a similar approach in the game between Wolves and Manchester United, where I am doing something that may feel a little counterintuitive at the moment: I am putting my faith in Manchester United. As I mentioned in the treble analysis, I thought they were unfortunate in their defeat to Bournemouth, that there were some positive tendencies in their play and that they were undone by poor finishing and defensive mistakes. These issues could of course continue to undermine them, but Wolves are far from the level of opponent that Bournemouth were. Wolves’ 3-0 win over Leicester City looks great on paper, but it’s worth mentioning that three out of their first four shots in that game went in – and that was with the help of some horrendous defending and goalkeeping by Leicester City.
I’m not convinced Vitor Pereira can fix Wolves overnight, and I think United can go to Molineux and get three points. But with United continuing to struggle defensively, particularly on defensive set pieces, I have no confidence at all in their ability to keep a clean sheet here. All of which leads me to think that “United to win + both teams to score” at a price of 3.65 is another long shot worth taking this weekend. Bear in mind that with all three selected singles having odds of over 3, we only need one of them to land to record a profit on these picks this Boxing Day. We’re taking some slightly bigger swings than we usually do, but hey, let’s live a little this holiday season.
Good luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 24.12.24
