Lars Resort: PL Preview – CL Hopefuls

We’re just days away from the 2024/25 PL season, and our football expert Lars Sivertsen shifts his focus to the clubs hoping to secure European spots this this time around.

This is, in my view, the most difficult segment to rank and predict this season – and by some margin. You can make a strong case for all of these teams finishing as high as 4th, and an equally compelling one for all of them finishing as low as 7th or 8th. In trying to rank these, it did at one point occur to me to just write their names down on pieces of paper, put them in a bag and go with the luck of the draw – though that would rather undermine the whole point of these previews. Either way, expect this segment of the league to be full of intrigue as five very accomplished teams – who also face various challenges – battle it out for the right to play CL football next season.

Check Lars’ thoughts on the relegation battle here.
Check Lars’ thoughts on the midtable madness here.

8th place: Newcastle United

Odds to win: 25.00
Odds to make top 4: 3.00
Odds to make top 6: 1.60

Reasons for optimism:

Newcastle’s relatively disappointing last season was as much down to injuries as anything else. With the team having to take on the challenge of extra games in Europe, a bunch of players started picking up injuries and leaving Eddie Howe to rely far too heavily on a small core of fit and available players. Once these problems started clearing up, Newcastle started looking like themselves again, and over the final 12 games of the season they were actually fourth in the league. Newcastle fans could argue, with some justification, that with a mostly fit squad and no extra games in European competition to worry about, Newcastle are set to rise back up the table this season. And for what it’s worth, they were 5th in the table on xG difference last season, suggesting their eventual 7th place finish was a little bit less than they deserved anyway. They’ve held on to Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes, at least so far, and the club has kept faith with Eddie Howe rather than panic and make a change based on one unfortunate season. Going into the summer Newcastle were worrying about PSR issues, but they appear to have resolved those without losing any of their major stars, cashing in on homegrown squad player Elliot Anderson and promising youngster Yankuba Minteh. There are plenty of reasons for Newcastle United supporters to go into this season with hope and optimism.

Reasons for concern:

Why then, have I ranked them lowest in this segment of the table?

Well, as much as Newcastle managed to find a way through their PSR issues without selling a major star, their enforced caution in the transfer market also means they haven’t been able to freshen up the squad in the way Eddie Howe no doubt will have wanted. Defensive solidity, which was such a hallmark of their impressive 2022/2023 campaign (when they finished fourth and had the second best xG-difference in the league), might not be the same this term with the important Kieran Trippier a year older and Sven Botman missing much of the first half of the season as he continues to recover from a horrible ACL injury. When Sandro Tonali is available again their midfield should be the strongest part of the team, with Tonali, Guimaraes and the ever-industrious Joelinton forming a formidable trio. The likes of Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon and Miguel Almiron provide plenty of energy and legs in the wide roles, but the trickery of Yankuba Minteh would have been a welcome addition to the squad if they had been able to keep him. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that this part of the team could have done with an addition or two. Then there is Eddie Howe himself, whose standing at the club could well be weakened following the departure of Amanda Staveley. With a new Sporting Director coming in as well, you have to wonder how safe Howe’s position would be if they went through the kind of poor run we saw Newcastle endure half-way through last season.

Verdict:

No European football is a big upside for Newcastle this season, and there is no reason to expect a repeat of last season’s injury nightmare. After the aggressive spending of the past few years, Newcastle have had to take a much more cautious approach to the transfer window this summer and it has left the squad looking a little bit stale. Add this to changes upstairs and I get a slightly bad feeling about Newcastle’s chances of improving and challenging for a Champions League spot this season.

7th place: Aston Villa

Odds to win: 50.00
Odds to make top 4: 4.00
Odds to make top 6: 2.35

Reasons for optimism:

A fine campaign eventually saw Aston Villa finish 4th last season and clinch CL qualification for the first time in the modern era. A huge result for them and their manager Unai Emery, who continues to prove that at the right club, with the right working conditions, he is one of the sharpest managers around. Villa actually started 2024 in second place, with only Liverpool taking more points than them in the first 20 games of last season. They couldn’t quite sustain a title charge, though that is entirely understandable for a team that was just three points outside the relegation zone when Emery took charge back in October 2022. They’ve lost two significant contributors from last season in Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby, but those sales allowed them to avoid major PSR issues and make some moves of their own in the transfer market. The rangy midfielder Amadou Onana from Everton has looked for a while like a player who was ready for bigger things than constantly watching the ball fly over his head in a Sean Dyche team. Ian Maatsen, signed from Chelsea, looked an exciting prospect at left-back when he was on loan with Dortmund last season.

The former Hull City winger Jaden Philogene may have one of the most ridiculous agents in the business (the player’s representative posted photos of himself in Barcelona’s parking lot on Instagram this summer, hinting at a possible move, which prompted Barcelona to clarify that they had no idea who the player was and were not interested), but the player himself was one of the most prolific dribblers in the Championship last season and could be a player to keep an eye out for this season. Ross Barkley could also prove a shrewd addition. The excellent Emi Martinez in goal, behind a well-drilled defence and an industrious midfield of Onana and Boubacar Kamara should make Villa a defensive unit few opponents will enjoy trying to break down, while there is no reason to think Ollie Watkins won’t continue to score goals up front.

Reasons for concern:

Their brilliant results in the first half of last season promoted talk of a title push, talk that Unai Emery, in fairness to him, was always keen to downplay. But when the dust settled on last season, Villa actually had just the seventh best xG-difference in the league, suggesting that they may have had their fair share of margins going in their favour to secure fourth place. It’s not uncommon to see teams regress slightly after a season of outperforming their xG numbers.

Villa may find the extra demands of a CL campaign difficult to deal with, but it should be said that they’ve had some practice juggling fixtures after getting to the semi-finals of the ECL last season. Douglas Luiz is a significant departure, and though I personally rate Onana very highly he will have to step up to fill Luiz’s shoes in midfield. Getting 50 million pounds from Saudi Arabia for Moussa Diaby is, one suspects, a deal Villa feel pretty good about, but it does put a bit more pressure on Leon Bailey to stay fit. The Jamaican is an exhilarating player, but he does tend to pick up injuries now and again, and if he is unavailable Villa start looking a little bit short on quality in wide areas.

Verdict:

Villa have recent experience of combining the PL schedule with European commitments, but CL participation is a different level of challenge to playing comfortable Thursday night ties against weaker opposition in the ECL. This will stretch the Villa squad, and I’d be very surprised to see them repeat their heroics in the league from the first half of last season.

They were 7th in the league on xG difference last season, and that’s roughly where I’d expect to see them this season. That being said, all three teams I’ve placed above them in this bracket of the table have the potential to implode and underperform, which could see Villa capitalize again.

6th place: Chelsea

Odds to win: 20.00
Odds to make top 4: 2.35
Odds to make top 6: 1.50

Reasons for optimism:

It’s been something of a chaotic pre-season for Chelsea. No, strike that, it’s been something of a chaotic year for Chelesa. No, strike that, it’s been something of a chaotic period for Chelsea ever since their new owners took over. Which followed a not-entirely-smooth period in which their owner had his assets frozen for having close ties to a despotic war criminal. Really, you have to say that it starts to feel like chaos is the norm at Stamford Bridge. But the point is that, in spite of all of this, a very fundamental fact remains: There are a lot of good and very promising players in this squad. Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital has overseen a lavish spending spree that has at times seemed unfocused, to put it politely, but the club has ended up with a roster packed with emerging talent.

Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo were costly acquisitions, but they are both fine midfielders who appear to have a high ceiling for their talents. Cole Palmer has proved a brilliant acquisition. Christopher Nkunku had his first campaign in England ruined by injury, but he was a very impressive performer in the Bundesliga prior to that and should now be ready to contribute. And the rest of the squad is brimming with promising young players who other top clubs would have loved to have signed for themselves.

Reasons for concern:

But then that rather continues to be the issue. The squad is brimming with promising young players but is lacking in experience and know-how. The owners’ scattergun approach to recruitment has seen them sign a large number of exciting numbers, presumably playing the percentages and assuming that if you sign enough of these talents, surely a few of them will turn out great. The trouble with that strategy is that these players do actually need to play and to play as part of a functioning team to develop properly. When the new owners took over they quickly dispensed with CL winning manager Thomas Tuchel, because they felt his vision for the club and his role wasn’t aligned with theirs, and they replaced him with the more malleable but less experienced Graham Potter. Now they appear to have done the same, parting company with Mauricio Pochettino in spite of a strong finish to last season, and instead going for the younger Enzo Maresca. Maresca is coming off a fine promotion campaign with Leicester City and is undoubtedly a bright young manager with bright ideas, but you’re still left with an inexperienced manager leading an inexperienced squad. An inexperienced squad of which much is expected, partly because Chelsea are Chelsea but also because of the astronomical cost of assembling said squad. Chelsea received near constant criticism last season, but for much of the season they actually played reasonably well – as indicated by the fact that they ended up with the fourth best xG-difference in the league. But they suffered from iffy finishing up front and unreliable goalkeeping at the back. Thus, one would expect them to go out and sign an established striker and goalkeeper.

On the goalkeeping side Chelsea have, yet again, gone for youth with the addition of Filip Jörgensen from Villarreal, while an elite striker has yet to be added. They have, however, spent 50 million pounds on another winger in Pedro Neto. And while Neto is a fine player, it is fair to say that Boehly and Clearlake continue to move in mysterious ways. Their eagerness to cash in on Conor Gallagher, academy product and boyhood Chelsea fan, to solve the very predictable PSR problems the owners have created for themselves, seems an elegant summary of the state of things at Chelsea this summer.

Verdict:

I think there are just too many good players in this squad for the season to be a total disaster for Chelsea, but I continue to be slightly mystified by many of the ownership’s decisions. Enzo Maresca may well prove to be an upgrade on Mauricio Pochettino, but making sense of this squad is no small task for the Italian to take on in only his second full season as a head coach. If it clicks, and if a few of Chelsea’s bright young players can have the kind of break-through season Cole Palmer had last season, the club could well finish higher than this. But the potential for disaster and implosion is very much present.

5th Place: Manchester United

Odds to win: 25.00
Odds to make top 4: 3.00
Odds to make top 6: 1.60

Reasons for optimism:

There are new brooms and fresh optimism at Old Trafford, with Sir Jim Ratcliffe taking a 27.7% stake in the club and taking on sporting control of the club. Ratcliffe certainly seems more invested in the club’s sporting success than the rather more detached Glazer family had been, and his arrival has at least galvanised the fan base and sparked hopes of a better future. Keeping Erik ten Hag in charge was something of a surprise, but it’s a decision that could have upsides.

The Dutchman’s tenure has been troubled so far, but given the state of the squad, the injury issues and the off-the-field problems he has faced, one could still make the case that Ten Hag has had very difficult working conditions indeed. We have yet to see what an Erik ten Hag Manchester United is supposed to look like, and that is not entirely his fault. The club has taken a bold approach to the transfer market, pulling off something of a coup in convincing the highly rated young defender Leny Yoro to join the club and now adding Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui from Bayern Münich. These additions should help United’s frequently understaffed and injury-plagued defense, though Yoro picking up an injury in pre-reason was a blow. The technically gifted forward Joshua Zirkzee joining after a productive season with Bologna is an intriguing transfer, and adds a very different option to United’s attack. United have also started a much-needed clear-out of the squad, with unwanted players such as Anthony Martial and Donny van de Beek leaving the club. With a further midfield addition expected before the end of the transfer window, the Manchester United squad is starting to look rather promising. For sure, you would expect them to comfortably improve on last season’s performance.

Reasons for concern:

Which, of course, wouldn’t take much. Manchester United finished eight last season, their lowest league finish since 1990, but it’s important to stress that they were even worse than that. They actually outperformed their Expected Goals-numbers by quite a lot, and at the end of the season they were 15th in the league on xG-difference. Only Burnley, Sheffield United, Luton and West Ham conceded a higher xG number than Manchester United last season. These are truly disastrous numbers, and the eye test was no better. During the second half of the season teams would cut through a non-existent Manchester United midfield at will, week after week, inevitably leading to questions being raised about Ten Hag’s tactical acumen. United’s insistence on playing with a high press but with a defence sitting pretty deep, leaving vast spaces in the middle for an unift-looking Casemiro to cover, was deeply mystifying. Adding younger and more athletic players to the backline should help a lot, allowing the defence to push up and close these spaces. Mason Mount returning to midfield could be a boost, as could whoever the club ends up signing in this position. But still, it should be clear that United are starting from a very low base here. Marcus Rashford, once a key player, had a very poor last season and looked a shadow of his former self. The biggest positive from last season was the performances of youngsters like Kobbie Mainoo and Alejandro Garnacho, though even after some lavish spending this summer it appears that some very young shoulders will still have to carry a lot of responsibility.

Verdict:

I would expect a significant improvement on last season from Manchester United, simply from having more fit and mobile defenders.

Whether or not Erik ten Hag deserves another chance to put his stamp on Manchester United is debatable, but United have decided to go with him and support him by signing two more players he has previously worked with. Perhaps we will finally see what this team is supposed to look like, without having to constantly battle injury crises and off-the-pitch issues. I’ve put them 5th, but as stated in the intro, I have no great conviction in the order of these five teams.

4th place: Tottenham

Odds to win: 35.00
Odds to make top 4: 3.00
Odds to make top 6: 1.65

Reasons for optimism:

Last season could have been an absolute disaster for Tottenham, and it wasn’t. With Harry Kane leaving, after having carried the team for many seasons, and a manager with no experience at this level coming in, there really was no shortage of warning signs going into the season (I picked them to come 7th around this time last year). But the unheralded Ange Postecoglou had an immediate impact on the team, orchestrating some thrilling football and some fine early results. The numbers underpinning these results always looked a bit iffy, and a slump went from likely to unavoidable once injuries started to hit.

But still, the team had shown enough with their new style for the players and fans both to fully buy into “Angeball”, building crucial resilience for the rockier second half of the season. Missing out on CL football in the end was a blow to the club, but finishing 5th – two points behind 4th – was an entirely acceptable outcome for this season overall. Now, with a year of working with Postecoglou under their belts, the players should be more intimately familiar with his demands and his tactics, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect some slight improvement this time around. The signing of Dominik Solanke is a fairly expensive one for the club, but the former Bournemouth man possesses a combination of physique, work rate and goalscoring nous that should make him a good fit for Postecoglou’s system. The striker-position was a difficult one last season, with Richarlison often unavailable and Son Heung-min not looking fully comfortable in the role. If Solanke can settle well and lead the line, it should help some of the more creative players behind him to play to their potential. A central defensive partnership of Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, when both are fit and not suspended (looking at you, Romero), should be one of the best in the league – while Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie both offer much as rampaging full-backs.

Reasons for concern:

If you want to be very positive you can say that Spurs started last season well, then ran into some bad injuries to key players and struggled to really get their season fully back on track after that.

With players back fit, it should all be fine now. That is one interpretation. Another, rather more negative one, is that Postecoglou’s adventurous tactics caught a lot of opponents by surprise last autumn, that Spurs had some lucky breaks early on and outperformed their xG by a lot in the first few months of the season, but after a while opponents started figuring out what Spurs were doing and the team then started to struggle. I find myself inclined to agree with both of these rather contradictory takes, which makes it particularly difficult to project the future for this team with any kind of confidence. There is no doubt that the absences of key players at key moments last season was a big issue, and simple loss of form in the case of James Maddison. But it’s also hard to escape the notion that – to oversimplify things a bit – once opponents started figuring out what Spurs’ underlapping fullbacks were up to, the team started winning much fewer games. There were far too many games when Spurs had a lot of possession but struggled to break down defensively stubborn opponents, and there were far too many games in which Spurs kept giving up crazy counter-attacking chances to the opposition.

Postecoglou will no doubt be aware of these issues and will have been working to fine-tune these things, but it remains to be seen whether Spurs can actually kick on and improve on last season. More specifically, I’m personally not fully convinced by Tottenham’s central midfielders – though the two youngsters Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall offer some promise for the future in this area.

Verdict:

I underestimated Spurs last season, and perhaps I’m overcorrecting and overestimating them now. But I think having a proper focal point in attack will lift the team by quite a lot, I think they have a fine array of dangerous attackers who can play behind Solanke and I think their back four is really quite excellent. With most of the team having had one year of working under Postecoglou and had more time to internalise his demands, I don’t think it’s completely unreasonable to suggest that Spurs could finish one place higher than last season.

Much will depend on avoiding injuries, and while this is true for all teams it feels particularly true for Spurs – since Postecoglou’s football leans heavily on the athletic capacity of certain players in the squad.

The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this post.

Last updated: 14.08.24